Mr. Dombrowski and Mr. Thomson held their season ending press conference this past week - both stated the need to be receptive to adjustments and open minded to changes going forward. Mr Dombrowski mentioned a few minor leaguers who might help the big club in 2025. It’s not envisioned that any current minor leaguer claims a spot on opening day but the value of a ready reserve who begins the season in the high minor league levels with contract options is an area that certainly presents opportunities. This is especially true since many of the current reserves of this definition on the 40 man roster are out of such options next season.
When it comes to conjecturing on what players might become based solely on data to formulate statements such as “hits too many ground balls” or “doesn’t hit the ball hard enough” I’m never going to be the person to offer such narrative. I definitely don’t discount the data and certainly believe it is required to evaluate and even more so guide a player from a teaching perspective but also believe that data isolated on its own merit is inconclusive.
What I do offer are personal observations from watching multiple practices/games (both livestream & in person) during each season (another pet peeve of mine are folks who present “definitive” opinions on a player after just one or a few observances). Both traditional and non-traditional stats will indicate on field success/failure but unquantifiable things such as how a player carries themselves, team orientation, approach, balance, mechanics, mental state, swing, baseball savvy, jumps, range, how a pitcher delivers and follows thru, movement, consistency, hands, etc. are variables that will always be important and primarily/most readily reviewable by observations. They are also variables that reflect whether a player contributes to a winning standard within an organization or how they might project doing so at higher levels. The collective combination of observations and data analysis along with the ongoing development of skillset produces the most complete narrative in my humble opinion - to do anything less is misguided/uninformed.
Each player is also unique - e.g. some may have exemplary speed that allows them to be productive in manners that aren’t afforded to others. In other words it’s not a cookie-cutter process nor do embellished definition stats such as “WAR” that some fans use indicate real value in my opinion - first because the definition of those types of stats is inconsistent and secondly because of different skill sets in comparative players within the data. It’s also tired to continually harp that select defensive positions require a wedged offensive skillset - e.g. that a corner outfielder must be a power hitter - it’s just not the case if a lineup is balanced in proper accord.
At present there are four stateside affiliate levels to plan rosters for and a “rookie” level team. The 2024 season rosters were limited to 175 during the off-season and 165 once the regular season opened. It’s anticipated that the roster limit will be further decreased in the future albeit I’d expect them to remain at the current limits for the upcoming 2025 season. When deciding what players should be assigned to the levels the prevailing rule of thought seems to be that the AAA level should predominantly consist of “stay ready” players capable of filling short term needs at the major league level interspersed with those with rising skillsets. The AA level is where “on the verge” rising skillset players generally perform that are close to delivering major league impacts or are potential “stay ready” players for the AAA level while the two A levels are stocked with players in need of experience for ongoing development. The complex league teams are generally younger players in their initial years of play and those from higher levels on either rehab assignment or working on fixing a glitch in their game.
So with that being said here is what I will present as my off-season player development analysis series - rather than go player by player in a regimented format as I’ve done in the past I will review groupings of players by topic highlighting those I think stood out in 2024. I will attempt to predict roster status going into the off-season while sometimes presenting where openings need to be filled by affiliate level for the coming 2025 season. I kicked off my off-season series with a 10/14/24 article on minor league free agents - https://www.philliesbaseballfan.com/post/10-14-24-minor-league-free-agency
Here are the next articles in the series - players “on the cusp” of major league contributions - broken down into two parts - pitchers and position players.
Pitchers :
RH Andrew Painter (21 years old) - he had Tommy John surgery on 7/25/23 - it’s been almost 15 months and he’s back on the mound throwing in Arizona Fall League games. Was on the fast track to the big leagues prior to the surgery after having a standout 2022 season posting a 1.56 ERA across three levels (Low A to Double A) in 22 starts (103.2 IP) with 155 K’s and 25 walks, was dominant. Has an upper nineties fastball that often touched triple digits, throws both a two and four seamer, outstanding slider and curve and solid change up. We watched a couple live BP sessions, the velocity has not waned - feel for the secondary pitches to throw them consistently will be the ongoing challenge along with re-gaining the masterful command and control of the heater. It’s planned that he will throw about twenty innings in the Arizona Fall League and begin next season in perhaps the AAA rotation with an eye on contributing to the big leagues at some point else he could make the club directly out of spring camp. He seems well on his way to all of that - pitching in the AFL re-introduces competition while working back to full form. Other than Sixto Sanchez early in his career he’s the most complete and dominant minor league pitcher I’ve ever watched perform.
LH Tristan Garnett (26 years old) - signed as an un-drafted free agent 7/20/21 - Cal State Dominguez Hills - Release point comes over the top on a downhill plane, he’s 6’6” - put away pitch is his changeup, excellent deception from the same arm slot as the heater and no slowing of his arm motion. We’ve seen the fastball up to 94 mph, generally in the 91 to 93 mph range. Tristan will also throw a cutter and slider to keep batters honest, has the look, moxy and stuff of a big leaguer. He made six appearances in this year’s big league spring training (4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 6 K’s) and was assigned to Reading to open the season. Went on the IL with a medical issue in early July after experiencing a rare bad outing on 7/5 where he was tagged for four runs in just 2/3 of an inning. We caught up with him at Carpenter Complex after he was put on the 60 day IL and the medical issue had been addressed, same upbeat persona we’ve come to admire and respect. Afterwards returned to action - a couple rehab appearances with Clearwater and then activated on 9/4/24 with Reading. Was promoted to Lehigh Valley for the last week of the year and appeared in one game throwing a scoreless frame. Is Rule 5 eligible for the first time this off-season. One of the nicest young men we’ve met and is highly respected by teammates in the organization. He’s now pitching in the Arizona Fall League - in my opinion he’s capable of contributing to the big club at some point in 2025.
RH Mick Abel (23 years old) - made 24 starts (108.2 IP) in 2024 for AAA Lehigh Valley putting in the work despite having significant struggles this past season locating and commanding the strike zone - far too many walks (78) yet he also recorded 117 strikeouts. Worked on establishing/maintaining a lowered arm slot, finding a consistent release point and not tipping pitches with his delivery. Velocity sat 94-96 mph which is a drop from prior years however intent was to harness control and create movement, still has a very good curve ball and hard slider that are plus pitches and a change up. Had issues with stamina throughout the year due to an illness that had lingering effects from spring training camp. He’s not an excuse maker, is a diligent worker and will push hard to regain the form that made him a top draft selection. First time eligible for Rule 5 draft - there is no doubt he would be selected if unprotected. He’s a big league talent who had a very tough year, first one of that sort since being drafted in the first round of the 2020 draft out of Jesuit High School in Portland, Oregon. From my perspective the chances that he rebounds in 2025 are probable, I trust the player, person and the development staff to bring that to fruition - when it does he’s capable of helping the big club.
RHP Griff McGarry (25 years old) - 2021 5th round draft selection - University of Virginia - has worked thru mechanical changes the past couple seasons to try to find a consistent release point and arm slot. When he maintains a pitch path and stays linear to his target he has the mix to be a major leaguer, the battle has been to do so - when he struggles both control and command are the problem - rarely gets hit hard - walks are the primary issue. Switched to a full time reliever this season and focused on throwing a four seamer (95-97 mph) and cutter occasionally mixing in his slider and changeup. He’s made progress but has also been inconsistent - made 29 appearances with Lehigh Valley this year posting a 4.55 ERA in 29 appearances (30.2 IP) with 40 K’s and 36 walks - is rule 5 eligible for the first time this off-season. He’s now competing against highly regarded prospects in the Arizona Fall League - performing well should earn him a 40 man roster spot - consistently doing so puts him in a spot to contribute at the big league level.
RH Eiberson Castellano (23 years old) - signed as an international free agent 7/2/18 - Maracaibo, Venezuela - features both a four seam and two seam fastball in the 93-96 mph range which has been up to 97 mph. He has a power slurve in the low 80’s and is continuing to develop a change up. Posted a 4-2 record in 14 appearances (12 starts) at Jersey Shore with a 4.12 ERA in 63.1 IP with 86 K’s and 20 walks. Promoted to Reading 7/16/24 - in 7 starts (35.1 IP) has a 3.57 ERA with 46 K’s and 9 walks - a .209 BAA and 1.02 WHIP. Was Player Development pitcher of the month in July. Overall 2024 numbers : 6-4, 21 games (19 starts), 3.92 ERA, 98.2 IP, 132 K’s, 29 BB, 1.16 WHIP, 4.55 K/BB ratio. Earned the 2024 Paul Owens Award. Has a presence about him on the mound and big time movement and spin on his deliveries. In my humble opinion he’s just scratching the surface of what he can become, I’m just as excited about his future as the first time we saw him pitch back in Instructs of 2021. I asked Eiberson what kept him consistent this season - he said “keeping my mind positive and competitive.” I asked how confident he was in his pitches - he replied “I feel that I can throw each of them in any count or situation of the game, any pitch.” In regard to the future he said “ I will keep working hard, that’s my mentality now.” It’s gratifying to see to see talent develop - especially when knowing the effort that’s required. He has the skillset to someday contribute at the major league level.
RH Daniel Harper (25 years old) - 2022 17th round draft selection - University of Kentucky - pitched at two levels in 2024 - began the year with Jersey Shore - promoted to Reading on 6/25/24 - appeared in a total of 44 games (51 IP) posting a 2.82 ERA with 61 K’s and 20 walks. Daniel’s fastball ranges from 92 to 95 mph - it has touched 98. He was a FB/Cutter closer at Kentucky, as a pro he’s incorporated a couple more pitches. Phillies Minor League Pitching Coordinator Travis Hergert told me this summer “Harper is a big arm that possesses a live fastball and hard slider. We leaned into a sinker that can show something going in to right handed hitters to open up options with the four seamer up and slider away. Along with cleaning up some ways he rotates to the plate, Harp was finally healthy and that helped his ability to bounce back from outing to outing and have his best stuff.” Daniel told me this summer that he uses a four pitch mix - “When I came to the Phillies in ‘22, I only threw a four seam and a cutter. Since then, I have added a slider as well as a sinker that opened new pitch sequences and parts of the zone that I wasn’t able to throw to before. I’m primarily throwing my four seam, sinker, and slider but also mix in the cutter more when the situation calls for it. We always get post game reports so seeing 98 mph on there a couple of times has been awesome. In games, I try not to look at the radar gun as I just want to focus on getting the batter out. I’d be lying if I didn’t say that every now and then I will take a peak to see what I’m working with for that day.” In my opinion there are a couple “under the radar” relievers who might step up next season and potentially make contributions to the big club - I think Daniel’s at the top of that list.
Pitchers already on the 40 man roster that spent the majority of their 2024 season in the minor leagues who have minor league options left include RH Seth Johnson (one option), RH Jose Cuas (one option), RH Max Lazar (three options), RH Freddy Tarnok (one option), RH Kyle Tyler and RH Michael Mercado (two options).
Pitchers already on the 40 man roster that spent the majority of their 2024 season in the minor leagues who have no options left in 2025 include RH Tyler Phillips, LH Kolby Allard, LH Tyler Gilbert and RH Yunior Marte. RH Luis Ortiz had TJ surgery and is likely to miss the 2025 season recovering.
The next article will be on position players “on the cusp” of major league contributions.
Happy Day, Happy Baseball ⚾️
Note : I've partnered with Fanatics on Phillies Merchandise - if you would like to help support my website and articles here's a link to order merchandise - I get a small commission on any sales - thanks for the support.
Comments